2013 Asias time
http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2012/12/31/2013-asias-time/
By Ravi Agrawal, CNN
Editors note: Each day this week, GPS Senior Producer Ravi Agrawal will look at whats in store for the world in 2013. He begins today with Asia. The views expressed are his own. You can follow him on Twitter http://twitter.com/RaviAgrawalCNN.
It turns out the Mayans were wrong about the end of the world. Planet earth survived 2012 and is now about to embark on yet another revolution around the sun. But lets cut the Mayans some slack: they were, after all, projecting thousands of years into the future.
My task is easier. What will the next twelve months look like? What changes are in store for the world of politics and economics?
Asia, with more than half the worlds population, has already begun to usher in 2013. So lets begin there.
The most consequential developments will take place in China. http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2012/11/15/china-gets-a-new-leader/?iref=allsearch will assume the presidency in March. But as the Communist Partys leader, he is already the most powerful person in the country. How will he lead? The early signs are promising. After his election, Xis first official visit outside Beijing took him to Shenzhen. It was a carefully considered choice. Shenzhen is a "special economic zone" �C a poster child for Chinas economic reforms. While there, Xi made a point of laying a wreath at a bronze statue of Deng Xiaoping, the architect of Chinas fiscal reforms in the 1980s. The symbolism was clear: it is time once again for a bend in the road.
China has enjoyed double-digit growth for much of the last two decades, powered by the states streamlined vision, cheap labor, and competitive exports. To get rich is glorious, said Deng. The pursuit of wealth has led to the creation of a middle class country with middle class demands: China is now a nation of consumers. These consumers increasingly demand more freedom, and less corruption. Beijings new leaders may need to make concessions to these demands. After a http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/27/how-bad-is-corruption-in-china/, Chinas new leaders will make public attempts to crack down on graft. They will also mull over what to do about their graying constituency. Decades of the one-child policy have ensured that China will be one of the rare few countries to grow old before it becomes rich. It therefore faces a demographic crisis: more men than women; more old men than young men. Is there anything Beijing can do to prevent it from becoming the next Japan? After months of guessing and posturing, 2013 will finally reveal what Chinas new leaders have in store.
While its difficult to predict how much Chinas economy will reform, you can certainly expect Beijings foreign policy to continue its muscle-flexing and assertive course. Put simply, it is good politics. Stoking nationalist sentiments has immediate payoffs.
Perhaps the more worrying link in this chain is Japan. In http://edition.cnn.com/2012/12/26/world/asia/japan-new-pm/index.html?iref=allsearch as prime minister, Japans http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2012/09/03/why-asia-is-arguing-over-its-islands/?iref=allsearch (or Diaoyu) islands could escalate. But Im going to stick my neck out and say that Abe is more likely to focus on the economy in 2013. Japans growth is sputtering; its population is aging rapidly. Abes real mandate is to http://thediplomat.com/2012/12/18/can-abenomics-save-japans-economy/ to jumpstart the economy. Hell know its his only chance to stay in power: Japan, after all, has now had 17 prime ministers in the last 23 years. Japanese want a sunny economy �C not war with their much bigger, more powerful neighbor.
http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2012/12/27/japan-in-2013-insecurities-to-loom-larger/
What will 2013 bring for Asias third-biggest economy? The fiscal story from India in the last twelve months has been fairly dismal. http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/11/30/india-economy-gdp-idINDEE8AS0FT20121130 and the rupee declined to a record low. Yet those reverses may have opened the door for a revival. New Delhis reform-minded prime minister, the economist Manmohan Singh, finally mustered the political courage to launch a set of reforms that will encourage foreign investment, competition, and growth. (Although as always with India, politics may yet get in the way). My prediction is that better sense will prevail.
An easier forecast to make is what will happen to Indias neighbors: both Pakistan and Bangladesh have elections scheduled for 2013. In Pakistans case, a peaceful handover of civilian power would mark the first such instance in the countrys history. The usual suspects are in play to replace President Asif Ali Zardari �C former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and the popular former cricketer Imran Khan. Neither of them is likely to be as reliable an American ally as the incumbent.
Elsewhere in Asia, there will be bright spots, especially for the economy. The World Banks latest estimates point to rises across the continent. Indonesia, the Philippines, and Malaysia will continue to impress.
Dont forget Myanmar. 2012 saw it http://edition.cnn.com/2012/11/09/world/asia/myanmar-obama-visit-progress/index.html?iref=allsearch as the next frontier of growth. It proves a couple of things about international relations: sanctions do work; and there is now a realistic path for other isolated states to follow. If an authoritarian regime is willing to open up and allow democratic ideals to grow, the world tends to welcome it back into the international fold. Are you listening, North Korea?
2013 will be Asias year. Its countries will lead global growth and its people will rise as consumers. Singapores http://blogs.ft.com/the-a-list/2012/12/28/the-east-will-rise-above-the-west/#axzz2GcvuVxMI that while 500 million Asians enjoyed middle class standards in 2012, that number will rise to 1.75 billion by 2020. That single statistic will change the way the world sees Asia �C and the way Asians will impact the world.
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